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Mexico will have better growth in 2015

Karla Salinas | 09.01.2015

The Mexican economy will have better economic growth in 2015, helped mainly in non-oil export sector and the expansion of the US economy, estimated Grupo Financiero Santander.

The Mexican economy will have better economic growth in 2015, helped mainly in non-oil export sector and the expansion of the US economy, estimated Grupo Financiero Santander.

According to the document of economic perspectives for Mexico in 2015, a favorable expectation adds to the growth dynamics on the implementation of the energetic reform in its initial phase, as well as earnings in real wages and employment.

The document emphasized that it is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of oil prices and petroleum production, as well as to eventual scenes of financial volatility associated with the normalization of the monetary politics of The United States and to the problematics of the Euro zone and an eventual deceleration not foreseen of China's economy.

Santander believes that Mexico's economy will have great benefits in 2015, mainly from the US economic growth and the possible improvement of other developed and emerging economies

“The main issue will be again the diagnosis on the economic growth, provided that the end performance has been lower than expected in the last two years ", it said.

To the closing of 2013, analysts estimated that in 2014 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would register a growth in the range of 3% to 3.5% and it is possible that the growth may eventually resulted from about 2%.

For 2015, the expected growth is of 3.5%, similar to the estimate of private analysts surveyed monthly by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which in August stood at 3.9%, but in the last quarter of 2014 it went down.

It is estimated that in 2015, as in 2014, Mexico's economic growth will be benefited by the growth of non-oil exports to the US market as the main destination.

By 2015 it is anticipated that the US economy registers an increase of 3%, which together with an exchange rate of the mexican peso against the more competitive US dollar, gives hope that non-oil exports will continue with favorable results.

Mexico's economic growth registered in 2014 was linked to internal factors, some of them could dissipate in 2015 and promote economic performance.

The document argued that in 2015 they're not expecting new taxes or an increase in the existing ones, as it happened in 2014 and generated a considerable impact on the confidence of consumers and businesses, especially at the beginning of the year.

Likewise, a minor inflation is expected in 2015 (3.4 %) than that of 2014 (4.2 % through the first half of December), for its mentioned effect of taxes, as for the minor adjustments in the prices of gasoline, as well as reductions in the prices of telecommunications services.

"The minor awaited inflation suggests an improvement in real wages, which in addition

 to job gains, will eventually improve the consumers confidence", establishes the financial institution.

Finally, it establishes that there will be an improvement in the indicators of investment for the topic of biddings on public work and the lagged effects of the exercise of public expenditure in 2014,  which will join the positive effects of the first stage of implementation of the energy reform, as well as in the telecommunications area.

“These elements, to which should be added the underway recovery  in the construction sector, makes us believe that the growth of the economy will improve in 2015," predicts Santander.

Source: mexicanbusinessweb.mx